As we enter a new year, many local homeowners are facing a familiar question. Should they bring their Harrogate home to market in January, or wait until the late spring?
In recent conversations I have had with Harrogate buyers, sellers, and buy-to-let landlords in the run-up to Christmas, one question kept cropping up in relation to that decision to move or not.
‘What will happen to Harrogate house prices in 2026?’
Some buyers, especially first-time buyers, worry they are about to purchase just before a potential downturn. Some homeowners want to know whether there will be a boom and, if so, where the market top might be before they sell. A number of landlords feel stuck, unsure whether to buy more or start selling part of their portfolio.
No one has a crystal ball, but most property experts are not predicting doom and gloom, yet will we see a boom?
When people ask where Harrogate house prices are heading, they often look for predictions, forecasts, or bold headlines, even crystal balls! The direction of any property market is driven by something far more basic. House prices are, at their core, a function of demand and supply. When there are more buyers than homes available, prices are supported. When the balance tips the other way, prices soften. Strip away the noise, and that relationship has not changed … ever.
Supply of Harrogate homes
Let us look firstly at the supply of Harrogate homes on the market. The number of properties for sale tells us far more about the likely direction of house prices than any headline forecast. With that in mind, let us look at how many homes are currently on the market in Harrogate.
In the Harrogate area in January 2020, we started the year with 1,231 Harrogate homes for sale. In January 2021, it was 1,220; 627 by January 2022; 841 in January 2023, 906 in January 2024; and now at the start of January 2026, that has risen to 959 Harrogate homes for sale.
The pandemic caused many Harrogate households to reassess what they wanted from their homes. Bigger rooms and more space became priorities. This so-called race for space in late 2020 and 2021 accelerated moves that many families had planned for between then and 2023. As more people wanted to buy, demand increased, and people bought homes; therefore, supply decreased. There were not enough Harrogate homes available to meet that demand, which inevitably pushed prices upward.
Yet some could ask, with the number of Harrogate homes on the market, at what appears to be a higher level compared to some years, does that mean we will be heading for a house price crash? While the supply of property on the market is certainly higher (compared to a few years ago, back in 2008, the number of homes for sale in Harrogate was between 1,700 and 2,100). Unless supply levels get back to those levels, things should be ok.
While it is still too early to be definitive about 2026, most commentators agree that a major crash is unlikely given excess supply.
Demand for Harrogate homes
Now, let us look at the demand. This is measured by the number of homes that sell.
In 2020, 1,595 Harrogate homes changed hands. In 2021, this rose to 2,453 as the post-pandemic rush kicked in and 2,058 in 2022. In 2023, 1,605 properties changed hands; in 2024, 1,730; and now, in 2025, 1,741.
(Harrogate = HG1, HG2 and HG3).
Demand is primarily driven by mortgage availability and affordability, as well as interest rates. In 2007, mortgage rates sat between 6.5% and 7.5%. When the economy weakened, and unemployment rose by over 60% in just a couple of years, many households were forced to sell. At the same time, the credit crunch hit the economy. The credit crunch substantially reduced mortgage availability. Thus, demand dropped.
This time around, most homeowners are on mortgage rates of around 3% to 5%, real wages are increasing, and unemployment is low and stable. There is far less pressure forcing people to sell their Harrogate homes.
Is 2026 the right time to buy your first home in Harrogate?
This depends far more on personal circumstances than on market timing.
If the right Harrogate home is available, affordable, and suits your needs, delaying can be counterproductive. Buying a home is a long-term commitment, often spanning 25 to 35 years. Waiting endlessly for the perfect moment can mean never getting started at all. Remember, I wrote recently, mortgage payments for first-time buyers, nationally, are 26.5% cheaper as a percentage of take-home pay than back in 2007. Every month you wait is another month of wasted rental payments.
Low interest rates for first-time buyers mean there are still attractive mortgage deals available for those with solid deposits, particularly on fixed rates. Buyers with more modest deposits can still access 5% deposit mortgages, albeit at slightly higher interest rates (yet still not at the much higher levels seen 18 months ago).
Landlords should be pleased that, as house prices remain steady, rents are rising above inflation in many cases, boosting rental yields.
Taking a wider view, these are opinions rather than guarantees. If inflation remains contained and interest rates ease slightly, Harrogate house prices are likely to continue rising through 2026 and beyond, though at a slower pace than 2020 and 2021, and with occasional short-term ups and downs along the way.
So, where will Harrogate house prices be in 12 months’ time?
Well, I would say there will be between a 1% and 2% growth in Harrogate houses in 2026, which is very similar to 2025. This is of course an average, and some types of homes and locations within Harrogate will outperform that, while others will be slightly behind that.
The key is affordability. Plan for future rate rises, build in financial resilience, and make decisions that work for your own circumstances. Do that, and you should be well placed whatever the market does next.
These are my views. What are yours?